2/3 Listed Clothing Companies' Inventory Continued To Rise In The Third Quarter, Selling Inventory And Maintaining Profits Fell Into A Paradox
According to media reports, if all clothing What will happen if the production line of the enterprise stops production collectively for three years? Maybe you will see a picture of ragged clothes in your head, but the fact is that everything is probably OK!
The quarterly report shows that the total inventory of only 22 A-share clothing listed companies in the third quarter reached a staggering 38.2 billion yuan. Before this figure came out, the total backlog of inventory of 42 garment enterprises in the first half of the year was 48.3 billion yuan. "Clothing enterprises can't digest these inventories in three years, and the profit support is needed behind the sales of inventory. When the report is ugly, the bank will follow behind to demand debt." Cao Chunxiang, the executive vice general manager of Sanqiang Group, analyzed the reporter that more and more clothing enterprises are entering the inventory cycle. Looking through the semi annual report, the reporter found that at present, one of the enterprises with the largest inventory turnover days even reached 10843 days. In other words, it took more than 30 years for this enterprise's inventory to go from warehousing to selling out.
investigation
Private enterprises stop wholesaling and only sell inventory
How depressed is the market? Just left Chengdu Lotus Pond Clothing wholesale market Cao Chunxiang, who came back, repeatedly sighed with the reporter that "this time is different from the past". "In the past, this wholesale market could be described as a sea of people, but this year, it looked sparse, and some of them even had no one."
It is reported that "Lotus Pond" ranks seventh among the top 100 comprehensive trade markets in China with its annual trading volume of billions, and its clothing market share is the first in the western market, with 300000 daily trading people.
Although he is an "outsider", Mr. Lu, a Hangzhou citizen, agrees with this. "In the past, cars would be particularly blocked once they arrived at Sijiqing Clothing Wholesale Street, but now there are fewer buses and minibuses loading and unloading in the cold and quiet neighborhood." "Sijiqing" is a clothing wholesale distribution center like "Lotus Pond" in Hangzhou.
"Since November last year, the booth price has not been able to rent out, and the rent of shops in golden locations has also been reduced by at least 70%. Last year, the sublease price of shops can reach 350000 yuan. This year, even if the original tenants are rented at a reduced price of 100000 yuan, the other party will not necessarily renew the lease." Mr. Zhang, an old brand operator of Sijiqing Wholesale Market, told reporters.
He told reporters that the difficulty in renting shops reflected the low popularity of clothing wholesale. "At present, not only clothing manufacturers have a large backlog of inventory, but also the middle of the wholesale chain has a backlog of inventory. However, these private wholesale enterprises are easier to turn around than factories with equipment and assembly lines. As soon as they see the situation is bad, they withdraw and stop buying new goods. They just want to clear the warehouse as soon as possible to sell out the clothing and turn to other businesses." "If you look at the current Qipu Road, the retail share is expanding, the price is going up, and this year's wholesale can't stand it." Underwear brands like Sanqiang are in a "buffer" zone because of the existence of rigid demand and the slow updating of the market law. Cao Chunxiang, who is familiar with the clothing industry, still told reporters frankly.
However, Miss Wang, who has been "camping" in the garment city commonly known as "Old Prosperity" for 12 years, believes that the "golden age" of Qipu Road wholesale channel is already sunset, even without considering the increase or decrease of terminal demand. "I specialize in the original order business in Japan and sell the final order with minor defects in quality inspection from the factory. The business has been booming before, but this month, for example, we have lost ten major customers."
The reporter learned that the loss of customers is mostly related to the "network". "A few of them are online stores themselves. Now they have gone directly to the manufacturers to get goods, skipping the first level wholesalers. Some of them do not have their own manufacturer resources, but they also turn to online procurement. We have hundreds of thousands of rents a year, so the online price advantage is greater." Miss Wang said.
In Prosperity International Clothes & Accessories On the stalls on the first floor of many buildings with the best locations, such as the City and Lianfu Commercial Plaza, the reporter also saw slogans marked with "end of season clearance", "jumping off buildings for sale" and other words. The originally crowded "cubicle" was even more built with cardboard boxes.
number
2/3 Stocks of listed companies continued to rise in the third quarter
The comparison of the financial reports of several A-share listed garment enterprises in the past two quarters shows that "inventory" has become the "sword of Damocles" hanging on the head of almost every enterprise.
According to the iFinD data of Tonghua Shun, 39 home textile and clothing enterprises were counted by Shenwan industry. As of the first half of 2012, 34 home textile and clothing enterprises had inventories far exceeding 100 million yuan, including 5 home textile and clothing enterprises with inventories exceeding 1 billion yuan. If the scope is extended to the whole spin Of the 80 listed companies in the clothing sector, 66 have inventories of more than 100 million yuan, and 11 have inventories of more than 1 billion yuan.
After excluding * ST Far East and ST Ray B from the weekly financial report, the statistics of 37 clothing listed companies found that the inventory in the 2012 mid report consolidated statements totaled 44.985 billion yuan, and only 4 of them had inventory less than 100 million yuan.
In the second half of the year, the situation is still getting worse. Compared with the second quarter, 2/3 of the enterprises saw a month on month increase in inventory. The reporter noticed that Meibang Clothing (002269, Guba), whose inventory had reached 1.753 billion yuan in the first half of the year, increased by 446 million yuan in the third quarter; Seven Wolf's inventory increased by 244 million yuan, ranking among the inventory of 700 million yuan to 800 million yuan; Pathfinder (300005, Guba) also increased nearly 200 million yuan, and its inventory was close to 500 million yuan.
The reporter looked up the annual report and found that, taking Sema Clothing as an example, its inventory in the past five years has jumped year by year. In 2007, the total inventory of Sima clothing was 280 million yuan, increased to 540 million yuan in 2008, crossed the threshold of 1 billion yuan in 2010, and stabilized at 1.09 billion yuan in 2011. However, by the first half of this year, the inventory had reached 1.47 billion yuan, which means that the growth rate in the first half of this year alone is far more than that in the past. In the middle of this year alone, the month on month growth rate of inventory has reached 50%.
Annunciator The annual report of the past five years also shows a similar trend. The inventory in 2007 was 110 million yuan, an increase of 180 million yuan in 2008, a slight increase of 10 million yuan in 2009, an increase of 60 million yuan in 2010, a sudden increase of 510 million yuan in 2011, an increase of 140 million yuan in the first half of this year, and the half year increase was close to the largest annual increase in the past.
Taking Li Ning as an example, the company's inventory in 2011 was 1.133 billion yuan, up 40.64% from 806 million yuan in 2010. The high inventory increased Li Ning's inventory provision to 188 million yuan in 2011, a 63.48% increase over the same period in 2010.
Another intuitive data is that in the first half of the year, there were 30 listed garment enterprises with more than 100 days of inventory turnover. Among them, the top three listed companies with the longest inventory turnover days are ST Ray B, Youngor and Hongdou Shares. The inventory turnover days are 10843 days, 1557 days and 1199 days.
analysis
Sell inventory and ensure profits fall into paradox
An obvious inventory problem is the downturn in the export market. According to customs statistics, from January to August this year, the decline of textile and clothing exports was further deepened, with both clothing and textiles down 0.7%. In the first half of the year, more than 40% of the country's provincial textile and clothing exports declined. "Another reason is that the cotton yarn soared to 40000 to 50000 yuan/ton last year, and many enterprises did not grasp the strength of delivery. This year, the price fell back, but the cost of enterprises could not come down. They either sold at a loss or could only overstock." Cao Chunxiang told reporters that 25% of the three shots were fired less last year, "so in the first half of the year, all parts of the country also cried against the trend of shortage, just to clean up the inventory."
It is understood that since March, domestic textile prices have dropped significantly. Raw cotton and viscose have dropped by nearly 10000 yuan from the previous high, and yarn prices have also fallen in response. Last week, the price of 32 pure cotton yarns in Qianqing market was 31000~32000 yuan/ton, down 1250 yuan per week, down more than 9000 yuan from 40000~42000 yuan/ton at the beginning of March. "In this case, there is a paradox in the decision of the enterprise. If we want to digest the inventory as soon as possible, we must rely on price cutting to promote sales. The loss of profits is very large, so the report of the listed company will be difficult to see. If the report is ugly, it will directly face the problem of bank debt collection. Therefore, a more benign approach can only be to earn a little and eliminate a little."
Cao Chunxiang also said frankly that in addition to external market factors, many garment enterprises expanded rapidly in the early stage, which also created the bottleneck today. "A few years ago, we blindly pursued the occupation of stores. After more channels, we naturally required that goods should be fully spread. Now, as the market shrinks, there is a problem of high inventory."
The reporter noticed that the semi annual report of China Trends showed that the total number of Kappa brand stores in the first half of the year was reduced from 3119 at the end of last year to 2550 now, a decline of 18.2%. According to the semi annual report disclosed by Li Ning, in the first half of the year, the company controlled the cost and efficiency of new stores and closed some inefficient stores. There were 7303 Li Ning brand retail stores, 952 of which had been reduced.
Zhang Zhe, the general manager of Shanghai Chenjin Consulting Co., Ltd., believes that the key reason for the serious inventory of China's clothing industry at present is the weak "internal skill" of product development. "Product research and development refers not only to design, but also to the establishment of a quick response system, including sales information system, conventional fabric supply system, and the establishment of small self owned factories." "Another main reason is the squeeze of new business models on traditional business models." Zhang Zhe analyzed that, "The department store counter is the traditional business model of Chinese clothing. The supply chain cycle from design to retail is very long. Fast fashion business models such as ZARA and H&M have posed a fatal impact and competition on the traditional business model in China. Therefore, the existing business model in China determines the fact of high inventory."
Follow up
Does the garment industry end the golden age of 20 years?
The reporter noticed that from the perspective of the equally serious "disaster" of listed companies, it is not only the traditional impression that the low-end ready-made clothing inventory is high, but also China's Brand clothing They are also encountering embarrassing living conditions.
Zhang Zhe's "fast fashion business model" has also received responses from other industry insiders. According to the reporter, the inventory phenomenon is common, but the turnover speed of the supply chain of international brands is fast. International brands generally prepare goods for 20 days. Compared with that, the preparation cycle of domestic clothing enterprises is much longer.
Industry insiders believe that the past 20 years have been the "golden age" of the clothing industry, and a large number of large brand clothing enterprises have emerged. But because of the "marketing+channels" strategy, they have quickly expanded the market scale in major cities under the bombardment of major media. The current depression is to pay for the craziness at that time.
"At least there is no sign that the market will turn better next year." Interviewees including Cao Chunxiang all expected reporters. Gao Yong, vice president of China Textile Industry Association, said frankly that the cold winter in the industry may last for 5-10 years.
In another niche, independence designer Clothing brands also cannot find "finished eggs". Li Hongyan, a well-known designer and the founder of two independent brands, admitted in an interview that due to the limitations of marketing channels and models, domestic independent designers also have an inventory ecology that is difficult to break through.
"In Europe, if an independent designer wants to become famous, he usually first takes part in a fashion competition, opens a studio with a bonus, finds sponsors to support the catwalk, and then is attracted by the ubiquitous senior buyers of fashion week, and finally puts his work into a well-known fashion store for sale." Li Hongyan analyzed the reporter, in contrast, there is no real buyer store in China.
Li Hongyan told the reporter that half of her works were directly bought out by foreign buyers, while domestic business models, including SEVEN DAYS and Dongliang, still focus on consignment. "The pressure on rent and sales has indeed eased, but the pressure on inventory is still in the hands of designers."
Li Hongyan, who has two stores under his name, is already a good practitioner in the circle. She also told the reporter that the net profit of its stores is about 30% now. "The income of a store on Fumin Road is about 200000 to 300000 yuan, while the popularity of Xintiandi is not very popular, about 100000 to 150000 yuan, but the monthly rent is about 50000 to 60000 yuan. The cultivation process of an independent brand is very long, taking 8-10 years.", Where should Chinese clothing go after 20 years of high growth?
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