The Paction Data Of The Canton Fair Are Now Split &Nbsp, And The Timing Of Trade Pattern Adjustment Is In Order.

October 19th, the 110th China

Combined with the first phase of paction data and interviews with reporters, the overall turnover increased slightly, but the increase was not large.

In terms of total volume, the number of merchants and the volume of export turnover in this session is not obvious than that in the previous session, and the order is mainly short and medium.

According to the data obtained by the Ministry of Commerce from the Canton Fair, the total number of overseas visitors to the visitor business on the first three days of the Canton Fair was 93 thousand, an increase of 2.6% over the same period of the spring fair this year, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last autumn. The total export turnover of the first three days was 10 billion 190 million US dollars, and the annulus ratio and the year-on-year growth rate increased by 4.2% and 14.5% respectively.

Short orders accounted for 51.7% in three months, 35.5% in 3-6 months, and 12.8% in 6 months.

From the structural point of view, according to the paction data of the first three days issued by the China Chamber of Commerce for mechanical and electrical products import and export and the China Minmetals Import and Export Association, the export growth of Asian African markets is strong.

The mechatronic products of 86.9% of the total volume of trade fair in the Guangzhou Fair have increased rapidly to the Asian and African markets.

The Asian market was strongly driven by the Middle East, India and Vietnam markets, with a turnover of $3 billion 10 million, a 28.9% increase over the previous year.

But at the same time, European and American markets, especially in North America, fell significantly.

Minmetals chemical products exported to Asia for 810 million US dollars, accounting for 37.9% of total export turnover, 1.4% higher than last year, and 640 million US dollars for European exports, accounting for 30% of total export turnover, compared with the previous growth of 11.6%.

In addition, the data of the electromechanical Museum and the five chemical industry museum show that the turnover of private enterprises has increased significantly.

According to customs statistics, in September, the growth rate of China's imports continued to be higher than the export growth rate. The trade surplus of that month was 14 billion 510 million US dollars, down 12.4% from the same period last year, 2.3 percentage points larger than the August surplus.

This shows that the effect of China's expanding import policy is gradually emerging.

The Canton Fair also conveyed the strong intention of the policy of "expanding imports" and its popularity.

Not only did the 529 companies from 49 countries and regions participate in the import exhibition, but also held unprecedented scale import promotion activities, including the Sino Japanese Forum on economic and trade cooperation, the eighteenth meeting of the China Swedish economic and Trade Commission, the Sino US State Economic and trade exchange conference, and the promotion of the Latin American Caribbean products export to China.

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The impact of the economic crisis on foreign trade is obvious. Transaction data differentiation highlights structural risk.

The global economic recovery is still uncertain. The slow growth of the main economies, the decline in consumer demand and the high unemployment rate have had a negative impact on China's import and export.

This has been able to see one or two from the reflection of the exhibitors in the first phase of the Canton Fair.

Most exhibitors said in an interview with reporters that the number of buyers from Europe and America consulted in the Canton Fair has declined, but the number of buyers from India, the Middle East, Russia and South American countries, such as Brazil, has increased.

Zhu Bingmei, chief customer manager of Kangda wood export to the United States, told reporters that the first four days of the Guangzhou Trade Fair were much less than that of their previous business cards.

There will be one or two buyers in previous companies to express clear purchasing intentions, but in the first four days of this year, the company did not meet a customer with clear intentions.

Nanjing Panda (600775) electronic import and Export Co., Ltd. and Wanxiang import and Export Co., Ltd., sales manager, also told reporters that the European and American markets were significantly fewer than before.

The depression of traditional market has brought some impact to some enterprises.

Wu Minghui, deputy general manager of Limited by Share Ltd of Shandong TAFE group, told reporters that the company's export revenue to Europe will drop from over one hundred million dollars last year to around 70 million US dollars. "This is a considerable pressure on enterprises," said Wu Minghui.

The impact of the European debt crisis on Greece and Italy is more obvious.

Shandong Weichai Power (000338) import and Export Co., Ltd. only formally established the European ministry in early 2010, and achieved an export volume of US $about 24000000.

Wang Lu, who is responsible for Latin America's European affairs, said: "Greece was originally good, and this year's business is basically stagnant, and Italy is also very depressed."

Due to losses in the traditional market, some enterprises have changed their direction in an early stage, gradually withdrawing from the traditional market and developing new markets.

A salesperson from a Fujian aluminum manufacturer told reporters that before the European and American markets were the main market of their company.

Since the United States launched anti-dumping investigations against China, the company has no longer developed the US market in the past two years.

This year's performance in European markets is not satisfactory.

He said the company now focuses on the relatively strong consumption market in South America.

It is worth noting that some enterprises have also been unable to adapt to the pition from the traditional high-end market to the low-end market.

Reporters in the bathroom exhibition area interview found that many luxury decoration, high-end high-end products exhibitors mainly export markets for developed countries in Europe and the United States, which has a strong relationship with the purchasing power of European and American consumers.

The exporters of low-end products mostly come from Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and other countries and regions.

The head of a bathroom company also told reporters that from his booth, the number of buyers from Europe and America was less than that of previous years, while the buyers from Latin America and Asian countries were more.

The official said he also preferred to do business with Latin American buyers in Latin American and Asian countries, which are slightly more purchasing power than Asian countries.

He said that he did not like to deal with businessmen in India because India merchants would put prices down very low.

The sudden decline of large share of traditional markets and the inappropriate adaptation to emerging markets have already brought risks to China's exports to a certain extent.

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The global economic and trade situation is still complex. The import and export of this winter and spring are not optimistic.

From the external environment, the situation of global economic recovery in the future is still uncertain, and the international trade environment is more complex.

At present, the European debt crisis has spread to the banking industry. Although the EU has continuously introduced various measures to solve the crisis, the parties have been divided in the settlement process. So far, no clear answer has been found to solve the European debt crisis.

Moodie, Investors Service Inc, an international rating agency, lowered Spain's long-term sovereign debt rating by two on 18 th. It believes Spain and the European Union have not taken any "reliable" measures since the end of July to effectively solve the current debt problem, and the market still lacks confidence in the euro zone's political decision-making and economic growth prospects.

America's economic growth is still not improving.

The Federal Reserve released the brown book in October 19th, saying the US economy still maintained growth momentum in September, but growth was still weak.

The brown book said that the US economy only grew moderately during the period from August 27th to October 7th, and the future economic outlook was "weaker" or "more uncertain".

With the recession of major economies, the international trade environment will be more complicated.

At the end of September, the World Trade Organization (WTO) announced that the growth rate of world trade this year will be lowered to 5.8% from the April growth forecast of 6.5%.

The 2011 trade and development report released recently by the United Nations Conference on Trade and development has also made the expectation that the growth of international trade volume will fall in 2011.

Moreover, trade protectionism has begun to spread from traditional markets to emerging markets, and trade wars and exchange rate wars have been superimposed and high frequency, becoming increasingly a new feature of trade protection in some countries.

Under such an international economic environment, China's imports and exports will face more unfavorable factors in the future.

Shen Danyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a monthly press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce in October 19th that due to changes in the environment at home and abroad, especially the instability and uncertainties affecting China's foreign trade development in the past few months, the import and export situation in the fourth quarter and next year at least in the first quarter of this year will be quite grim.

Based on China's three quarter foreign trade data and the first paction data of the Canton Fair, taking into account factors such as external demand, cost, exchange rate and cardinal number, Shen Danyang said that China's import and export growth is expected to show a trend of "high before and after low" throughout the year.

However, some experts gave more optimistic expectations.

Yuan Jiang, senior macroeconomic analyst at the strategic planning department of the Agricultural Bank of China (601288), believes that in view of the trend of the external market, China's foreign trade situation is difficult to improve in the fourth quarter, and the possibility of further decline in import and export is very large.

However, the negative impact of this European debt crisis on China's exports is gradually released, which is essentially different from the sudden impact of the global financial crisis on the foreign trade industry in the past 2008-2009 years.

Considering that China's domestic economic development is still relatively stable, import demand will not be stalled or even negative as it did during the financial crisis.

To sum up, the growth rate of China's imports and exports will slow down in the fourth quarter of this year, probably at around 12%, and the annual growth rate will remain at around 20%.

Transformation and upgrading pains, inevitable trade pattern needs to speed up fine adjustment

From the risk of signals and tips released by the Canton Fair, the connotation of China's foreign trade pformation and upgrading is increasingly clear.

On the export side, the importance of export market diversification has always been highlighted.

Faced with the potential huge purchasing power of emerging market countries, accustomed to doing export business in traditional and high-end markets, we must know more about the consumption demand structure of some emerging market countries, adjust the structure of export products, and produce middle end products suitable for the needs of emerging market countries while consolidating traditional markets, especially the traditional high-end market.

And enterprises with low and medium end products as main export products should also pay more attention to improving product quality and strengthening independent innovation.

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On the import side, enterprises should not only focus on importing advanced technology, but also focus on introducing advanced management experience and new concepts representing future development trends, such as green solutions.

Moreover, enterprises should not only attach importance to cooperation with large enterprises in developed countries, but also pay more attention to the cooperation between small and medium-sized enterprises with greater demand potential in emerging market countries.

In the process, small and medium-sized enterprises in China can also "go out" through technological R & D and brand export.

Of course, in this process, from the industry to the enterprise will inevitably have a lot of "adverse reactions".

Customs data show that in the first three quarters of this year, China's mechanical and electrical products exported 789 billion 330 million US dollars, up 18.2% from the same period last year, 4.5 percentage points lower than that of China's overall export growth in the same period, and the share in exports declined.

Regarding this, Yao Wenping, vice president of the mechanical and electrical chamber of Commerce, said that in the process of pformation and upgrading of foreign trade, some industries and enterprises are declining.

Therefore, exporters should learn to look for "danger" in order to minimize the negative effects of "non adaptation".

At the same time, the state should also fine tune its trade policies in the light of the policy of expanding imports and promoting balance.

According to Shen Danyang, the Ministry of Commerce will work hard with the relevant departments to maintain the basic stability of export related policies such as export tax rebate, foreign trade credit, export credit risk protection, RMB exchange rate, cross-border trade RMB settlement and trade facilitation.

At the same time, we should actively expand imports, accelerate the pformation of the mode of foreign trade development, accelerate the cultivation of new advantages, and promote the realization of the established foreign trade targets for the whole year.

Vice Minister of Commerce and vice president of international trade negotiations, Zijin Mountain hosted the Ministry of Commerce's "forum on optimizing domestic and regional layout of foreign trade" at the Canton Fair.

According to the press, the relevant departments are now working on relevant policies to encourage and support Chinese enterprises to promote traditional markets and emerging markets by participating in mainstream exhibitions in global markets, building marketing channels and marketing systems in overseas markets.