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Textile And Garment Industry Keeps Pace With The Changes Of The Times

2011/9/28 8:40:00 34

The future of China's garment industry is huge, but not every enterprise can win.

We believe that excellent enterprises should always start with consumers and seize the changing trend of consumer demand.

Looking for potential market segments, from the perspective of competitiveness, we are optimistic about the sub industries that can raise prices and brand strong; from the perspective of industry life cycle, we are optimistic about the growing industries: business casual men's clothing, high-end home textiles, high-end mature women's clothing, children's clothing.

We believe that the future excellent consumer goods enterprises should have at least four qualities.

1) based on brand, adhere to the consumer centered.

Manufacturing enterprises often start from their own endowments instead of consumer demand, so the brand development is slower.

2) precision marketing, expand sales through multiple channels.

3) efficient supply chain management.

4) having the capability of multi brand and multi series development, and the trend toward collectivization in the future is a trend.

Investment strategy: select leading enterprises with good industry gene and excellent quality.

We believe that changes in the social environment have led to changes in consumer demand, thereby affecting the development trend of various sub sectors.

Those with excellent quality can perceive and seize the changing trend of demand, and continue to develop in order to avoid brand aging and maintain sustained growth.

To sum up, we believe that the sub industry is in a period of rapid growth, and the companies that operate more healthfully are: the wedding birds in the commercial casual men's clothing (buy), the seven wolves (buying), the nine herdmen (buying), the home textile in the high-end home textiles (buy), the high-end high-end products in the mature fashion, and the Semir dress with the children's wear brand.

Good news bird (002154): the two venture, to scale and gross profit margin two wheel drive.

The growth mode of the company is mainly from intensive cultivation and endogenous growth to the two wheel drive of scale expansion and gross profit margin.

(1) it is estimated that the growth rate of the shop will increase from the original 6.5% to 14%-15% in the next three years.

(2) the company will continue to provide value-added services to enhance brand strength, and it is expected that gross margin will continue to improve steadily.

(3) brand strategy is far sighted, with plenty of reserves and potential.

brand

It provides protection for sustained growth in performance after 3-5 years.

It is estimated that the three quarterly report will grow by 40%-60%, and it is expected that the 2012 spring and summer ordering will be better.

It is estimated that the EPS will be 0.59/0.81/1.09 yuan in 11-13 years, and the net profit compound growth rate will be nearly 40%.

Seven wolves (002029) insist on "wholesale" to "retail"

Transformation

Strategy to increase endogenous growth.

The company is famous for its casual wear business men's wear brand. The seven wolf wolf jacket has won the first market share of similar products for eight consecutive years.

Recommendation logic: the company implements the core goal of "wholesale" to "retail" pformation, improves endogenous growth, and develops new e-commerce channels.

Catalyst: the company's three quarterly earnings growth is expected to be 30%-50%.

It is estimated that the EPS will be 1.41/1.85/2.42 yuan in 11-13 years, and the net profit compound growth rate will be 34%.

Nine Mu Wang (601566): intensive farming of the first tier cities, expanding two or three lines of cities, and expanding the categories.

The company is the leading industry in the men's clothing industry. Men's trousers occupy the first market share for ten consecutive years, and the market share of jacket is the first in two consecutive years.

Direct shops account for about 23.8% of the total shops. They are men's leisure brands with the largest number of stores in the market.

It is estimated that the EPS will be 0.87/1.14/1.30 yuan in 2011-2013 years, and the net profit growth rate will be 22.6% in the next 3 years, and the buying rating will be maintained.

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Roley home textiles (002293) home textile leader, strong and strong, is expected to become great.

consumer goods

Company.

The company is a leader in home textile industry. Its main brand is Luo Lai, which operates world-famous brands such as Shirley Dan, Shang Marco, Disney, Su Qi and Yi Ou Na. In recent years, its income and net profit have maintained rapid growth.

Catalyst: it is expected that the October spring and summer ordering in 2012 will grow better.

It is estimated that the EPS will reach 2.90/4.07/5.65 yuan in 2011-2013 years, and the net profit growth rate will be 56% in the next 3 years.

The 002612 position: positioning in high-end women's clothing, has excellent brand operation capabilities.

The company is a well-known high-end clothing business in China.

It has three core brands, including its own brand "long Zi" and "Rhine", as well as the "authorized" brand in China.

It is estimated that the company's EPS will be 1.1/1.59/2.28 yuan in 2011-2013 years, and the net profit growth rate will be 44.2% in the next 3 years.

Semir clothing (002563) children's wear Barbara will expand rapidly, casual wear Semir maintains steady development.

The company is the leading multi brand apparel operator in China, and the two brands are positioned accurately and prominently in the subdivision industry.

The company's brands, Semir and Barbara, ranked second and No. 1 in the market share of domestic casual wear and children's clothing respectively.

EPS is expected to be 2.01/2.74/3.59 yuan in 2011-2013 years, and net profit growth rate will remain about 34% in the next 3 years.