The Euro'S "Down And Down" Has Damaged China'S Exports.

RMB appreciation

In recent years, under the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis, the risk aversion funds have shifted to us dollar assets. The US dollar has strengthened, and the US dollar index has broken through 84, 85 and 86, and the US dollar has appreciated in currencies such as the euro, the pound, the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc.

As the dollar strengthened, so did the yuan.

The change of the US dollar exchange rate will directly affect the exchange rate of RMB against non US currencies. Under the condition that the RMB exchange rate is stable against the US dollar, the appreciation of the US dollar against the euro and sterling will inevitably reflect the appreciation of the RMB against the euro and sterling, and the appreciation of the RMB against the euro and Sterling as the US dollar appreciates against the euro and the pound.

Half a year ago, 1 euros was exchanged for RMB around 10 yuan. At present, it is only about 8.4 yuan, and the depreciation rate is about 15%.

Because of the integration of the global economy, the exchange rate movements of any country may affect other countries that have trade with them. This is no exception.

The European Union is one of China's most important export markets and one of its most important trading partners, accounting for 16% of China's trade. Therefore, the depreciation of the euro in the past six months has caused a great impact on Chinese enterprises.

Commerce ministry officials say the depreciation of the euro will cause huge cost pressures to Chinese exporters and will have an impact on the adjustment of trade policies.

Two quarter or current turning point for EU exports

Affected by the current EU economic uncertainty, China's textile and garment exports to the EU over 10% growth momentum may occur in the second quarter of the inflection point.

"Since last year, exports to the European Union are not very satisfactory. At the beginning of this year, European Union buyers rebounded slightly in order to replenish their stocks, but the terminal consumption has not been improving. The export to Europe in recent years has turned down again, which is 40% lower than that before the financial crisis, and almost no European Union orders have been received since the end of the Canton Fair, which is expected to be very bleak for European exports in the coming months."

Zhou Xiaonan, deputy general manager of Huamei line Co., Ltd., said in an interview.

Zhou Xiaonan said that the export to the EU was basically settled in US dollars, so it was not worried that the accounts would be affected by the depreciation of the euro. However, the depreciation of the euro would affect the purchasers' order, and the consumption of the EU market was still weak, and the EU orders were significantly reduced.

Zhong Haosen, assistant general manager of Guangdong textiles import and export Limited by Share Ltd, said orders in the US, Canada and Asia were gradually warming. Only the order of EU buyers began to decline, orders became small and scattered, while China's production costs continued to rise, making the paction more difficult.

"For example, in some European stores, the price of some jeans has been sold for 19.9 euros for a long time, and at present, it is impossible to increase the price under the condition of a still depressed economy. Because of the depreciation of the euro, the purchasing cost of the buyers has been increasing and the profit margins have been reduced. Therefore, the European customers who have always given more price have begun to lower their prices. However, the cost of raw materials and labor is rising constantly, and Chinese manufacturers have little room for profit. Besides, European orders are not as big as American customers, so it is hard for manufacturers to reduce their costs on the scale."

Zhong Haosen said.

With the slow recovery of the global economy, China, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea in the first quarter of this year

As the export base for the first quarter of last year was relatively low, there was a good growth in the first quarter of this year, and China's textile and apparel exports to Germany, France and other countries, which are most important to European exports, were relatively stable. Small countries such as Greece, which had economic crisis, occupied a very small share of China's textile and clothing exports. Therefore, in the past few months, China's textile and apparel exports to the EU were relatively normal, but the future situation is not necessarily optimistic.

On the one hand, the market is worried about the spread of the Greek debt crisis; on the other hand, the impact of the euro depreciation due to the trade cycle will be somewhat lagging, and the export to Europe will slow down or even negative again from the second or third quarter of this year.

From the China foreign trade barometer of the Canton Fair, we can see that there are signs of weakness in EU procurement.

Orders begin to fall.

At the 107th Canton Fair held in April this year, 203996 overseas purchasers from 212 countries and regions attended the meeting, an increase of 8.4% over last autumn's fair.

However, the purchasers in the EU declined by 15.2% compared with the autumn trade fair last year, while Japan dropped by 4.6%, and the purchasers in the US increased by 3.8%.

The number of buyers in emerging markets has increased significantly.

The number of purchasers in Asia, America, Africa and Oceania continued to grow.

With the weakening of the EU economy and the depreciation of the euro, some Chinese enterprises are eager to buy in Europe.

The euro, once a spectacular euro, is now the biggest dilemma for Chinese exporters.

"Recently, orders for settlement in euros have almost all suffered losses."

The head of a textile and garment export enterprise in Nanjing, Jiangsu, spoke frankly about the impact of the continued depreciation of the euro.

"The profit of textile and garment export is only a few points. The euro has depreciated more than ten points recently, which means that our cost has increased so much that it will definitely affect the purchasing confidence of the buyers."

He said that although the proportion of orders settled in euros is not large in the overall business of the company, the European business department has warned that the export business in Europe is likely to suffer losses in the light of the EU's economic situation.

"At present, we hope that the RMB exchange rate will remain stable, which is the only way to offset the impact of the depreciation of the euro."

Since the beginning of this year, the euro has been declining in a weak position. So far, the total appreciation of RMB has reached 14.5%, which makes our exporters in Europe have to face the general cost increase.

According to Huo Jianguo, Dean of the international trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, the depreciation of the euro has been relatively slow. However, in the less than a month from late April to mid May, the depreciation rate has increased rapidly, almost equivalent to the direct control effect of the policy. Therefore, China's exports to Europe of Electromechanical, textile and other products will subsequently feel a significant impact.

Stable

Huo Jianguo analysis, the growth rate of China's exports to Europe is still maintained at 25%. However, because the impact of the rapid depreciation of the euro may be relatively lagging behind, in May, the export growth rate of Europe has dropped. In June, the growth rate of EU exports will fall more obviously, and the next may be further down by 6-7%.

"At present, the United States has begun to worry about the trend of the euro, and China's exports will also be greatly affected. It can be said that stabilizing the euro is the top priority at present."

Huo Jianguo emphasized.

Li Haijun, head of Wenzhou AOKANG footwear import and export business, points out that the weakness of the euro reflects the current economic situation in Europe and the people's spending power.

Because the main exchange rate risk is borne by buyers, it is very likely that they will not dare to take big orders and long bills, but turn down small bills and short lists, which will shrink the volume of China's exports.

Li Haijun also predicted that in the second half of the year, the company's export situation to Europe is not optimistic, and exports to Europe will decline this year.

According to Reuters sources, the EU's Executive Committee's recent estimates show that the 16 countries in the euro zone fell to 17.5 in May, falling back to the lowest level in 7 months, while the wider EU 27 countries fell from negative 12.3 in April to negative 14.7.

The decline in consumer spending has now become a weakness in the euro area. If the euro continues to depreciate, China's exports to Europe will be hit hard.