Deflation Is Expected To Ease The Key To Market Rebound.

For the stock market in the first half of this year, the most influential factor is the tightening of economic policies and the expectation of further tightening.

In fact, whether liquidity tightening or overall regulation of real estate is essentially a result of macro tightening.

Under such a big background, the stock market is naturally difficult to escape. The decline in stock index over 600 points in the past six months is a good proof.

But objectively speaking, although there has been no change in the tight environment, there are signs that further tightening is unlikely in the second half.

In other words, people's expectations of deflation will be eased to a certain extent.

Why do we say so? In fact, the implementation of many tightening measures in the first half of the year is largely an adjustment to last year's highly lax policy.

Last year, the success of economic security eight was a great achievement. However, excessive monetary investment and excessive expansion of capital construction still add some variables to the smooth operation of the economy in the future, especially the increase in asset prices caused by the flood of liquidity is likely to cause inflation and even social problems.

Therefore, from a certain point of view, it is absolutely necessary to adopt corresponding tightening policies this year.

Practice over the past few months shows that China's economic growth has slowed down, and the pattern of excessive asset prices has also been restrained.

Although the consumer price index has recently broken through the target of 3.1%, because of various factors, from the operational situation, the possibility of continuing to rise is not great.

At the same time, the sudden euro zone sovereign debt crisis highlights the fragile side of the world economic recovery, and objectively delays the withdrawal of all countries' economic stimulus plans, which also has an impact on China's continued tightening policy.

People have noticed that for many years, the top leaders have repeatedly stressed the need to adhere to the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and put forward to prevent the negative effects brought by the superposition of a number of policies, which is in fact a direction for the regulation of the second half of the year.

It should be said that the austerity has already produced the corresponding effect, at the same time, its negative influence has also begun to appear, plus the external conditions are not so compatible, it is necessary to carry out some policy fine-tuning.

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Recently, the central bank has begun to adjust the direction of the open market operation in view of the tight fund supply in the market. It has been putting money into the market for several weeks. The Treasury has also taken part of the treasury funds to tender for commercial banks, and the major banks are allowed to concentrate on financing and refinancing, which is also conducive to improving the lending ability of banks.

These measures show that the parties concerned have already begun to solve the problem of too tight supply of funds in the market. In the direction of operation, they are turning to a limited degree of loosening. In such a case, it is impossible to adopt the practice of raising the reserve ratio again in the short term.

In addition, we are now talking about raising interest rates. In the context of the consumer price index for more than a month in excess of bank savings interest rates, raising interest rates is indeed inevitable.

However, from the reality, on the one hand, the government has taken a lot of measures to control prices. At the same time, it has adopted a "zero tolerance" strategy for the false reports on prices, and even criticized the "stagflation" of some experts for a long time.

All these reveal a message that management attaches great importance to price and has the ability to control price trend.

In this case, will the central bank raise interest rates immediately? Generally speaking, although this possibility can not be ruled out, it is actually decreasing.

Since the beginning of this year, people have been predicting that the central bank will raise interest rates several times during the year. At that time, some people thought it was the 4 time. However, in the past six months, the central bank used more quantitative means instead of price manipulation. This situation is unlikely to change significantly in the short term.

Therefore, the probability of raising interest rates is not very large now. People's worries should also be diluted.

It seems that in the second half of this year, the market will have a certain degree of mitigation expectation, which will undoubtedly play a positive role in the stock market.

It can be said that the most fundamental reason for the fact that the stock market can bottom up and rebound in the second half of the year is that the tightening policy will change. This expected change will play a key role in the market, and this expectation should be realized when the stock market is in pit.

Therefore, investors should pay more attention to the policy trend and grasp the expected changes in time, because only in this way can we see the trend of the stock market.